THE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE. THE PARTIES MAY CHANGE. BUT WILL THE GOVERNMENT REALLY CHANGE?
I am going to stick my neck out again.
Because as we approach the May 2027 municipal elections, I see an extraordinary number of possibilities being discussed as though they are already guaranteed.
They are not.
The entire political future of Orihuela currently rests on one very small but enormously important word.
IF.
IF eligible residents register to vote.
IF those already registered actually turn up.
IF population projections prove accurate.
IF dissatisfaction translates into votes.
IF PIOC gains representation.
IF the established parties lose support.
And perhaps the biggest question of all:
IF the political arithmetic changes, who will ultimately pay the price?
SOME PARTIES COULD BE FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL
Here is where I risk making myself unpopular.
Ciudadanos could find itself excluded from the next governing arrangement, potentially threatening its future as a significant force in Orihuela politics.
But political organisations have an extraordinary ability to reinvent themselves.
Like the phoenix, what disappears under one name can sometimes reappear under another.
New branding
New faces.
New promises.
And occasionally some remarkably familiar political personalities.
PSOE could lose ground.
Cambiemos could find itself squeezed.
PIOC could gain representation.
But equally, none of those outcomes is guaranteed.
An election is not decided by what people say on Facebook. It is decided by what appears inside the ballot boxes.
THEN COME THE PEDANÍAS
There is dissatisfaction beyond Orihuela Costa.
Residents in other pedanías have their own complaints about neglected infrastructure, poor maintenance and public services.
But dissatisfaction does not automatically mean electoral change.
We have seen this pattern before.
Four years of complaints.
Four years of frustration.
Four years of demanding something different.
Then election day arrives.
And suddenly political memories appear to become remarkably short.
Established loyalties return.
Old habits reassert themselves.
And parties that have faced years of criticism can still retain power.
I would not be surprised if PP and Vox remained central to the next governing arrangement, potentially with stronger Vox representation.
That is a possibility, not a prediction.
And anybody claiming certainty today should explain how they arrived at it.
AND WHAT ABOUT PIOC?
Somebody recently asked whether PIOC might collaborate with another political party.
My personal answer was emphatic.
NO — NOT IF COLLABORATION MEANS SACRIFICING THE MOVEMENT’S IDENTITY OR BECOMING A LIFELINE FOR ANOTHER PARTY’S SURVIVAL.
Let me explain.
I helped establish PIOC because Orihuela Costa needed an independent political voice.
Not another political label that could eventually be absorbed into the machinery it was created to challenge.
I have watched local political alliances come and go.
I remember the lessons surrounding CLARO and the difficulties experienced by smaller political organisations when agreements, personalities and party expectations collided.
The history of local politics around 2015 and 2019 provides plenty of reasons to examine proposed alliances very carefully.
That does not mean every coalition is doomed.
Nor does it mean elected councillors should refuse to discuss individual proposals.
But there is an enormous difference between supporting a worthwhile policy and surrendering political independence.
COOPERATION IS NOT THE SAME AS ABSORPTION.
NEVER BECOME SOMEBODY ELSE’S LIFELINE
Why should a new political movement spend years building credibility only to become the political life-support machine for an established organisation struggling to survive?
Why risk losing a distinctive identity merely to obtain positions around the council table?
Any agreement would need transparent terms, enforceable commitments and demonstrable benefits for residents.
Otherwise the danger is obvious.
The election creates a new opportunity.
The negotiations begin.
Compromises multiply.
And before long, the movement promising something different risks becoming another part of the familiar political landscape.
That is the Second Mountain arriving earlier than expected.
THE HARDEST IF OF ALL
There is one final uncertainty.
Residents themselves.
Registration figures are not votes.
Population growth is not political support.
Complaints are not ballots.
And enthusiastic projections do not elect councillors.
The 2027 election could substantially alter Orihuela’s political landscape.
Or it could produce another familiar governing arrangement.
Nobody knows yet.
But one lesson should be unmistakable:
THE FIRST MOUNTAIN IS WINNING REPRESENTATION.
THE SECOND IS MAKING SURE THAT REPRESENTATION IS NEVER TRADED AWAY FOR POLITICAL CONVENIENCE.
And if 2027 teaches us anything, it may be that the most dangerous word in politics is not change.
It is IF.
PETER HOUGHTON
Political activist and co-founder of PIOC
SAYING IT AS IT IS
