Professional sport is laden with omens and superstitions.
A good performance in one tournament can lead, more often than not, to a strong showing at a correlating event further down the line – the so-called ‘horses for courses’ theory.
For Aryna Sabalenka, victory at the Madrid Open in May could well prove to be a primer for success at the year’s second tennis Grand Slam tournament, the French Open, if the history books are anything to go by…
Clay Crossover
Heading into a major event in good form is incredibly important, and so perhaps it’s no great surprise that Sabalenka has waltzed through to the semi-finals at Roland Garros without dropping a set given her unstoppable play in Madrid a few weeks ago.
The Belarussian is now 13/5 in the women’s French Open betting odds, placing her as one of the favorites to win the title. Another former Madrid Open champion, Ons Jabeur, can be backed at 11/1 to be the queen of the clay.
A second success! 🏆🏆
Aryna Sabalenka beat world number one Iga Swiatek on clay for the first time to claim her second Madrid Open title last night.#BBCTennis
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) May 7, 2023
There’s no great surprise when success in Madrid is then replicated in Paris later in the schedule. The courts play at a very similar speed, the Mediterranean conditions tend to suit the same players and the quickness of the turnaround time between the two tournaments lends itself to repetition and momentum.
The history books prove as much, too. Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep all won the Madrid and French Opens, and the Madrid Open champions Kiki Bertens and Petra Kvitova would go on to reach the semi-finals in Paris.
The inaugural Madrid Open champion in 2009, Dinara Safina, would reach the final of the French Open twice, so in less than 15 years the clay court tournament in Spain has provided ample clues as to who will go on to perform very nicely at Roland Garros.
Sabalenka, who has cruised past the likes of Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina so far, will be hoping that she can replicate the achievements of dual Madrid-Paris champions Serena, Maria and Simona on June 10.
Old School Style
The slower pace of clay court tennis tends to lend itself perfectly to an old-school style of tennis: those who move well along the baseline and to the net tend to thrive, as do those that can create wide angles and who are comfortable on the volley.
While the likes of Sabalenka have a harder-hitting style that does away with such a notion, there’s still an opportunity for classical players such as Ons Jabeur to thrive on the clay.
The Tunisian is a former Madrid Open champion who is into her first quarter-final at Roland Garros. She fits the bill as the archetypal clay court player, with her unique slices and drop shots, and while clay and grass surfaces are completely different, Jabeur unveiled her full range of shots on her way to the final at SW19 last year.
In her WTA Tour profile, Jabeur describes the French Open as her favorite tournament, and so she would love nothing more than to join the merry band of Madrid-Roland Garros winners.
But she will have her hands full getting past Sabalenka and co, that’s for sure…
